Well, it's looking like the deal with Saban could fall over at tomorrow's meeting. This is bittersweet. Bitter - a nice profitable short term trade may not happen. Sweet - as per my previous note, if the deal falls over I will be buying More (if the stock price falls). RCU has tangible value, and it is trading at less than that value, so if it falls in the short term, then it makes sense to buy more.
But let's look at why the offer may fall over...
Major shareholder Greg Wooley has (amongst other things) sought a higher price from Saban. Saban has declined to increase its offer. Unless one of the two parties are bluffing or a different proposal is put forward, we're at a stalemate.
In December there were signifciant changes in the share register. Acorn, One of the fund managers with a stake in RCU has sold its stake down to Another group called Yasselleraph has taken a stake of 10.9%. Acorn has previously supported the proposal, and I do not know Yasselleraph's intentions or what Acorn has in mind. On balance, the change in shareholding probably doesn't improve the chances of the deal happening.
Anyway, until the meeting happens tomorrow, there isn't a whole lot to do. I am overseas atm, so will not attend the meeting; the asx announcements will need to suffice.
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