Thursday 24 October 2013

RHG Ltd (RHG)

Please click here for the last post on RHG.
  • Higher Bid from Resimac
  • NTA of CDM has increased
  • Wilson Asset Management has become substantial shareholder in RHG
In 2004 I fulfilled a lifelong ambition: to run the New York Marathon. It was an incredible experience, however I 'hit the wall' in the last 10km and slipped from an estimated completion time of 3hrs 10m to 3hrs 39m. It was agony. It was literally a matter of one step at a time. But I got there and it was well worth it. 

RHG is starting to feel like the last 10km of a marathon. Resimac has put a fresh step forward by upping it's firm cash offer from 49.5c to 50.1c. This bid has been endorsed by the RHG Board, which clearly likes the all-cash offer.

CDM has announced an estimated interim NTA of $1.42 pre-tax / $1.40 post-tax. This is up from $1.60 pre and post at the end of September. This has helped kick along the CDM price to the current price of $1.40. I have updated the previous table below for the higher CDM price:


Including franking credits the offer is worth 51.6c. Excluding franking credits it is worth 50.5c. This obviously depends on the CDM share price staying where it is.

So we are kind-of back to square one: albeit at a slightly higher level. CDM won't support the Resimac bid unless it is higher than it's own. To win, Resimac will need to increase the bid further, or it may get lucky if the CDM share price falls over and becomes inferior by default.

On top of all this the chaps at Wilson Asset Management have been buying RHG. I'm actually not sure how this impacts the position and what their plans may be. They may very well be having a sniff at potential future franking credits RHG yield and perhaps are simply following the idea of this being a fairly low risk trade. Regardless, as ordinary shareholders it is always nice to see Wilson on the register.

The annoying thing is RHG is hardly moving! It is 48.5c as I write. Obviously a lot of people just can't bothered with trade anymore.

But the marathon hasn't finished yet. I continue to hold.

Kristian

Disclosure: own RHG






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