Please note this article has been written Nigel Littlewood, who is also not currently licensed to provide financial advice. Disclosure: Nigel Littlewood and Kristian own shares in FSA.
In June I wrote an introductory piece
on FSA group when the stock was trading around 75c., followed by another update when the stock was ~$1. Yesterday the company provided an earnings upgrade.
FSA has been the only earnings upgrade we have seen in this market of late, so
it's most encouraging.
Tim Maher the CEO is now predicting full
year NPAT growth between 12-18%. This is a healthy jump on the circa 10% growth
rate expected a few months back. It appears the first half has been
particularly strong on the back of growth in the business lending division.
So my numbers suggest the stock is trading
around 12x at the current price of $1.28 and an expected NPAT of circa $12m.
The market has moved from pricing this stock cheaply to a much fairer multiple
and indeed priced for some growth.
I expect a dividend of 6c fully franked
this financial year (might be 5c) providing a running yield of 4.7% if I’m
correct.
While the easy money has been made this is
(in my view) a quality small cap which, is growing. Its balance sheet is sound
and management is very competent while being appropriately incentivised by
large shareholdings.
In the event that FSA’s new products find
traction this year the stock can grow into the future but the risk profile has
changed with its more aggressive multiple.
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